Idol Picks & Pedictions Follow-Up

So how did I do? Much better than my previous years. On the guys, I got 4 of my 6 picks and I accurately predicted 5 of the 7 finalists. For the girls, I only got 3 of my 6 picks but I predicted 4 of the 6 girl finalists. So to sum up my totals, 7 for 13 on picks and 9 for 13 on predictions. The only real surprise was Reed Grimm. I thought for sure he would make it but his wild card song was ill-conceived and poorly executed. He really shot himself in the foot there. Oh, well....
Now the bigger questions: Who will win this thing? Off the top of my head I would say either Colton Dixon or Elise Testone. But who knows? There's a whole lotta show between now and then!

American Idol 2012 Picks & Predictions

OK well I didn't do so well last year. Seems I am grossly out of touch with what America thinks is "talent." And the American Idol viewers seem to have the annoying habit of eliminating just about anyone who is halfway interesting before we get to the Top 12 so that all we are left with is the bland, boring, cliche, talent show pageant singers.
So this year instead of predicting what I think will happen, I am just going to give my picks for who I believe has the stuff to be a finalist. Afterwards I will take a stab at predicting what I think will happen...

First the guys...
The guys have definitely out-shined the ladies this year. I am hard pressed to narrow down only 6 guys. But here is my pick for the guys finalists:

1. Reed Grimm - He's like Casey Abrams on speed. Crazy talented and completely out of his mind. I love it! Don't think he has a snowball's chance in Hades to win but I think he's so darn lovable he will stay around until the Top 3 or 4.

2. Joshua Ladet - I nearly fell out of my chair the other night when he sang "You Pulled Me Through." I thought I was watching the winner of a previous season come back and give a master class to the other contestants. May not be my personal favorite but no one -- NO ONE -- beats this kid for sheer passion and emotion. He is amazing.

3.  Phillip Phillips - With his down-home charm and I-wish-I-was-Dave-Matthews-more-than-anything-else-in-the-whole-world vibe, you gotta love this guy. I loved his take on the Phil Collins tune. And you can just feel his love for music coming through. I love how grounded this guy is in who he is and what he wants to do. None of the glitz and glamour of the AI experience seems to penetrate that single-minded focus on just loving music. He has the highest hip factor of all the contestants by far.

4. Heejun Han - Please please please please PLEASE, America, keep voting this guy through. Sure, he doesn't have the confidence and swagger of some of the other guys, but the dude is HILARIOUS! I love how he doesn't take himself seriously -- heck, he doesn't seem to take anything seriously! But he has a great voice, smooth as silk, and if he doesn't make it as a singer he has a bright future as a comedic actor! Not my favorite singer, but definitely my favorite person to watch this year.

From here it gets a little tougher because I like nearly all the guys this year but after these four there are very few standouts to me. But if I had to pick 2 more...

5. Adam Brock - What a sweetheart of guy! And the dude can sing! Wha-wha-WHAAAAT?! He definitely has that magic, gruff, smoky, soulful tone that I love but if there is one thing he needs to be careful of, it's slipping into the cheese zone. Self-nicknaming is always a bad idea, especially f the best you can do is "White Chocolate." I mean, seriously? Let Heejun name you. He would think of something infinitely more clever. And it would be infinitely funnier, I'll bet. Song selection could be a problem for Adam. Plus he seems older than even the oldest contestants. He feels like he should be an over 30 on X-Factor. Nevertheless, he is a terrific singer and could do well with the right song choices and enough good moments.

6. Colton Dixon - I had a hard time here because my fingers paused over the keyboard and I almost typed in Deandre Brackensick. Both are returning after being eliminated right before the Top 24. Both are crazy talented. Both have ridiculous hair. But I have to say I give Colton the nod because he's a rocker and that falsetto thing Deandre does is going to get old real quick. It's like Hailey Reinhardt's growling last year. She does it once and the judges say, "That's awesome! I love it!" and she does it every single freaking time ad nauseam. I feel like Deandre will do the same thing. Plus I think Colton will bring a little edgier, alt-rocker feel to the show which is sorely needed.


Ok, those are my personal picks. Now here is what I think will happen... I think Reed will make it on likability and mad talent, Joshua is a shoe-in, but unfortunately I think the rest of my boys will be edged out by the preteen girl vote. I think you will see Deandre and Eben in the Top 6 boys based on the simple fact that middle school girls squeal when they see them. We might see Phil Phillips squeak in there but I have a feeling we will either see Jeremiah Jones or Jeremy Rosado in the finals. Not that they are bad, but they are boring.

One more note on the guys: I really think Creighton Fraker has a great voice but he looks like Beaker and sounds like a chipmunk on helium. It just gives me the willies. Sorry, Fraker fans. I can't helps how I feels.

Alright, now my pick for the girls. This is a lot tougher because there aren't as many standouts t me among the girls. They eliminated a few of my picks for finalists after Vegas week. There was this girl, I forget her name, who was stinkin' amazing and she had this really cool husky bluesy voice. Cut. Sent home. To make room for more cheerleaders and beauty pageant winners.

1. Elise Testone - the only girl I saw I think could give a guy a run for the money this year. She was nothing short of brilliant doing that Adele song last night. And frankly I would rather hear her than Adele. She is definitely one to watch. However, I don't like her chances to make it to the Top 6 girls because she just doesn't have that cover-girl look that some of the other contestants have. She will have to really work hard to overcome that whole image ting, but hey, look at Crystal Bowersox. She holds the record for highest ranking American Idol finalists with really bad teeth. So anything could happen. But Elise is by far the best singer in the girls this year.

2. Jennifer Hirsch - One of the better female vocalists. Seasoned, poised, and professional. Very commercial voice. Like Adam Brock, she seems older than she is and like Elise, doesn't have the look that some of the younger girls in the competition have. But there is no doubt she has the pipes to make a career out of singing. Does she have the charisma, the "it" factor? We will see...

3. Erika Van Pelt - More of a rocker than the other two with a very commercial voice. She makes it look easy. I like her attitude. I like her voice. And I like that she has the same last name as Linus in the Peanuts comics. That is a major plus and just may be what puts her over the top. Once again, she is one of the older contestants and is a little heavier with some funky teeth-and-gum issues. Don't get me wrong; I could care less about that junk. But America, especially the junior high girls that make up the vast majority of the voters on American Idol, will most likely not connect with her. I fear none of these first three will make it to the Top 6 when you have so many younger, prettier, skinnier contestants to vote for. Wow, Jerry! Cynical much? You bet! I have seen too many seasons of this show to expect any different.

Okay, just like with the guys, it gets a little fuzzy for me here. Most of the girls sing well enough, but very few are unique enough to stand out from your standard crop of bland AI finalists. But if'n I had to choose...

4. Hollie Cavanaugh - Terrific voice. Zero stage presence. And her song choice! Mulan? Seriously? Could you possibly pick a more overdone, predictable song to sing? With the gazillion amazing Disney songs you could sing, why do they always pick that one?! But she did sing it well enough. The thing that bugs me most is her lack of visible eyebrows. I know I sound petty and superficial, but when I watch her singing I keep thinking, where the heck are her eyebrows? I noticed they darkened them up for the cameras last night. I think she is the strongest of the younger girl singers this year. I think she will go through to the Top 6.

5. Hayley Johnson - Kudos for the attempt, but her version of Eurhythmics' "Sweet Dreams" was just plain awkward. Weird. Dark. Kinda Adam Lambert gone awry. And those creepy eyeballs in the background did not help her one bit. If she was on X-Factor I would have thought David Lynch was her mentor. It was that strange. But I think she is better than that and hope she gets a second chance. I doubt it, though. I think she killed her chances with that disaster last night.

6. Hallie Day - I don't feel very strongly one way or the other but I chose her for the simple fact that every other girl annoys me. I personally can't stand Skylar's "Chipmunks Sing Reba McEntire" twang. Shannon Magrane gets props for being Joe Magrane's daughter, for picking an obscure Christian artists's song, and for being ridiculously tall and standing next to Ryan Seacrest, but she is incurably bland. Jessica Sanchez has a vibrato you could drive an 18 wheeler through. Chelsea Sorrell is just okay, and Baylie Brown is not okay. Brielle Von Hugel is almost as bad, plus she comes across as a self-focused diva with an overbearing stage mom, which gives her a likeability score of right around zero. Quite simply, that only leaves Hallie Day. Is it just me or does she remind anyone else of Napoleon Dynamite in drag? Seriously, watch her face. Same exact facial expressions. Especially her mouth. I'm telling you, it's uncanny. Now that I spotted it, I can't think of anything else when she's singing. Put some wire-rim glasses and a red curly wig on her, add a "Vote For Pedro" T-shirt and stand her next to a tether ball set and she is Jon Heder. Watch and see! It's weird!

OK so that's my pick for the girls. Now here is what I predict will happen. Let's make this really simple: anyone over 18 and not eligible for a Miss Teen USA pageant will be eliminated. The only three amazingly talented singers will be out, and you will be left with Skylar Laine, Jessica Sanchez, Shannon Magrane, Hollie Cavanaugh, Baylie Brown, and Chelsea Sorrell.  Why not Brielle? Nobody likes her (or her mom) after Hollywood week. Why not Haley Johnson? Because she stunk up the stage last night. Why not Hallie Day? Because she looks like Napoleon Dynamite. And she is boring. Just trying to keep it real, folks.

In just a few short hours we will find out if I am right. Like I said, my cognitive abilities don't exactly have a stellar track record in seasons past. Last year I said (and I quote):

"I think while Scotty [McCreery, last year's landslide winner] is definitely great at what he does, what he does will not be enough to make it to the Final 12... And James Durbin has a great back story but be honest, aren't you already sick of his high-pitched caterwauling every single stinkin' song?! I know I am."

 On the other hand, I did call it with Lauren Alaina...

"Had her pegged for a finalist since her first audition. She's a powerhouse who makes it seem effortless. She has that Steel Magnolias beauty parlor flavor when she talks but her voice is amazing."

My record for picking finalists last year was 50% - 6 out of 12. So I ain't half bad! Or maybe I am exactly half bad. Glass full? Glass empty? America decides tonight!